Why foresight is harder than hindsight

The Hindsight Fallacy: The real reason it's so hard to predict bubbles.
Related to why the "experts" find it so hard to predict future events

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One Response to Why foresight is harder than hindsight

  1. lovetruthat says:

    The key to accurate forecasting is controlling subjectivity. The study of this is in the philosophy of science, the discovery of more and more effective “scientific methods.” Currently, there are three highly plausible realities.
    1. The Diogenian “no honest men” claim. What is popularly or widely accepted or thought is not true.
    2.The Bayesian “Make small but improbable predictions which can be tested inexpensively” approach. Also called the hypothetico-deductive method. This method treats the plausibility of ones ideas objectively, actually assigning or estimating a numerical value to the plausibility of your ideas, to which your subjective estimate can be compared.
    3.The “I can talk myself into whatever subjective state I choose.” premise. Here, subjectivity is demoted to a chosen condition, from an emotional identification (“I am what i am feeling”), with a recognition of the power of wise speech in reshaping feelings, desires, and impulsive reactions and thoughts, Knowledge of the power of such speech is a key part of the process whereby “the truth sets you free.”

    In the end, what we are pretty sure works is the general idea of gathering evidence that tests predictions from ideas impossible to examine directly. Then talking oneself, planning to talk oneself, into some plausibly true, chosen, enthusiasm or investment.

    Few, so very few, do this. Many, so very many, pretend to.

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