You’re biased, I’m not

We’re biased to think that we are less prone to biases than others. 
http://psp.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/28/3/369

Three studies suggest that individuals see the existence and operation of cognitive and motivational biases much more in others than in themselves. Study 1 provides evidence fromthree surveys that people rate themselves as less subject to various biases than the “average American,” classmates in a seminar, and fellow airport travelers. Data from the third survey further suggest that such claims arise from the interplay among availability biases and self-enhancement motives. Participants in one follow-up study who showed the better-than-average bias insisted that their self-assessments were accurate and objective even after reading a description of how they could have been affected by the relevant bias. Participants in a final study reported their peer’s self-serving attributions regarding test performance to be biased but their own similarly self-serving attributions to be free of bias. The relevance of these phenomena to naïve realism and to conflict, misunderstanding, and dispute resolution is discussed.

Brand Power

“We Japanese have a weakness for brands,” said Ryuko Nishimura, 43, a homemaker from Kuroishi, a three-hour drive away. “It makes the tuna taste two or three times more delicious.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/20/world/asia/20tuna.html

Design the decision process

From John Sviokla:

“In our world of information overload, every new choice is an effort — so companies need to give as much thought to the process of choice as to those choices and options themselves. For instance, Dan noticed that the Economist, at one time, showed three options for their potential subscribers: online-only for $59.00, print-only for $125.00, or online and print for $125.00. He designed an experiment, using his students, in which 84% chose the $125.00 for print and online, 0% chose print-only, and only 16% chose online-only. Any rational manager would say the $125.00 offer print-only offer was useless. But when Dan removed the $125.00 print-only offer, 68% of people bought the online product for $59.00 while only 32% shelled out for the $125.00 bundle! In other words, the higher-priced option was chosen less than half as often. By having the decoy of $125.00 for print-only, the customer could make an easy comparison to the other $125.00 offer in which they got online for “free.” Even something as simple as choosing a magazine has enough complexity in it that a decoy choice can radically change buyer behavior…Every manager should remember that in a world of excess choice, an easy place to differentiate is in the careful design of the decision process itself.”

Are “Great” Companies Just Lucky?

Mostly, yes. 

Are “Great” Companies Just Lucky?

Harvard Business Review April 2009

See also The Halo Effect

Wishful thinking

From Mormonism Unvailed by E.B. Howe (1834):

“There is nothing more curious than the connection between passion and credulity — and few things more humiliating and extraordinary, than the extent to which the latter may be carried, even in minds of no vulgar order, when under the immediate influence of any strong interest or excitement. It is also true that we have frequently to encounter a perverse incredulity and a callous insensibility to evidence, when we attempt to convince any one of what is contrary to his opinions, wishes or interests.”

Pricier Wine Tastes Better

A recent study shows that raising the price of wine makes it taste
better. When tasting wines they’d been told cost more,
testers’ brains showed more pleasure than when drinking cheaper
wines…even when the wines were exactly the same! The
study’s lead author is California Institute of Technology
economics professor Antonio Rangel.

mp3

http://www.wnyc.org/shows/lopate/episodes/2008/01/23/segments/92291

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Desire and Scarcity

A Sense of Scarcity
 
Wanting something makes it seem rarer than it really is.  Another case of emotions affecting judgement.

From Herbert Wray’s excellent “We’re Only Human” blog on the Association for Psychological Science website.

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Planning Fallacy

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/planning-fallac.html

People are far too optimistic in estimating how long their projects will take.

But they make far better estimates when they take an “outside view” and ask how long, in general, projects of that sort take.

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