Nice explanation of why you need stratification and how it works.
More generally, nice illustration of why, if you’re operating below a certain level of sophistication, you effectively just can’t think about certain topics. You’re out of your depth.
“Ya know, perhaps it would be worthwhile taking a look at the presentations made to get funding for or sell stock in actual mining operations.
Do you suppose they would reveal similar misstatements, equally invisible to the mining industry people?”
Interesting review of the epistomology of social science. by Jim Manzi
“The experimental revolution is like a huge wave that has lost power as it has moved through topics of increasing complexity.”
ODDS ARE, IT’S WRONG
Science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics
“The problems that we face today, both big ones in society like the current health care debate and smaller ones like strategic business decisions, do not exist because we lack information, but because we don’t understand it. They can be solved only by developing skills and tools to make sense of information that is often complex. In other words, the major obstacle to solving modern problems isn’t the lack of information, solved by acquiring it, but the lack of understanding, solved by analytics.”
Stephen Few, http://www.perceptualedge.com/blog/?p=621
In fact, every stand-out record in any sport that has ever been analyzed has always been found to be consistent with the patterns produced by random fluctuations.
Source: What Are the Odds? - Happy Days Blog – NYTimes.com