ODDS ARE, IT’S WRONG

Science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/57091/title/Odds_are,_its_wrong

ODDS ARE, IT’S WRONG

Science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/57091/title/Odds_are,_its_wrong

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“I once had a long discussion with Ken Steiglitz about P=NP, while I was still at Princeton…. Ken was and still is sure that P must not be equal to NP. Okay, I said to Ken, what are the odds that they are equal? Ken said that he thought the odds were a million to one. I immediately suggested a bet. I did not ask him to “bet his life,” but I did ask for a million to one bet. I would put up one dollar. If in say ten years P=NP had not been proved, then he would win my dollar. If P=NP was proved in that time frame, then I would win a million dollars from Ken. Ken said no way. After more discussion the best bet I could get out of Ken was to .”

http://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2009/09/11/would-you-bet-your-life/